Monday, March 28, 2011

Success and chance


It is normal in my Further Math class, be it statistics or pure, at one time the whole class will stop talking and moving, staring to my lecturer, like we all do not know what is happening. Like "what is she talking about...?" or so quiet all 15 of us will have the face of complete lost and disorientation.

I have sister and some juniors who are still in dilemma whether to take up or not Additional Math for their SPM. My opinion, value it with your effort and its relevance for your degree, or diploma or whatever ambition you want to pursue. It is not about others. You do not need to follow the typical flow that implies 'Science' stream is better than 'Art'. The comparison should not even start in the first place. Because when you see how this world works, you will understand how we need each other. But, wait, I'm not saying that I already see the whole world works, only the tip of its iceberg can make you understand.

This week's Further Statistics class makes my day brighter. Alhamdulillah. After doing one after one question, proving one by one each formula, my lecturer gives us a beautiful advice. In my class, I learn about Geometric Distribution, geometric probabilities. It is about calculating the probability of success after n of trials. Calculating the probabilities of the number of attempt, up to and including the first success from n trials, each trial is independent. Like, if the probability that I will shoot the target is 0.2, the probability that I will miss it will be 0.8 (as miss and hit plus will be 1). The formula is X~Geo(0.2); P(X=r) = pq^(r-1). If I try 4 times, and hit at my fourth attempt, the equation will look like this P(X=4) = (0.2)(0.8^3).

The most likely that I will hit the target is on my first attempt. Why? Because the probability will only be p, which is equal to 0.2. If I don't hit it on my first attempt, the probability that I will hit it on my next attempt will be smaller, and the probability will continue to be smaller for the next attempts.

The probability is getting it goes..
So, what is it about, success and chance with this geometric thing? Thanks to my lecturer for giving us this beautiful advice. When we are given chance to do something, we must try our best. Personally, I often feel that, I can do better next time. "Relaks dulu" attitude sometimes makes the outcome not so beautiful. Even I'm sure that I can do better next time, and I do most of the time, but she gives me a headshot. She said, in  our life, in everything we do, we must try our best. In every attempt, in every thing. We must not learn to say "I will do better next time, this time I want to relax or do something else first". Because Mathematics has proven that it is not true. So, even in each attempt, we think it is so easy and useless, we must give our best so that we can live our life to the fullest. Gaining full benefits, from our best attempts. The highest probability that we will success is in our first attempt.

BUT, although the probability is getting smaller after we fail, times after times. Mathematics has proven also, that there is chance that it will happen, it will succeed. So, when you fail so many times, never give up! You must have faith, and you must bear in mind, there is still a probability that you will succeed. So, never give up. After she gives the advice, I feel so refreshed and thankful. I don't know why.

And for us Muslims, our God will always help us. When you do something, do your best, and let Him decide the best for you... :) And if we want to do something the next day, or the next time, do not forget to say Insya ALLAH.
Nor say of anything, "I shall be sure to do so and so tomorrow"- Without adding, "So please Allah." and call thy Lord to mind when thou forgettest, and say, "I hope that my Lord will guide me ever closer (even) than this to the right road." [Al Kahfi, 23-24]

Insya Allah, I believe in Him.

p/s - I think Mathematics is beautiful, but Physics is more earthy. Like my Physics lecturer said, If you think Physics is hard, dont blame Physics, the hard part is Mathematics, so blame Mathematics...haha

p/s 2 - Happy birthday to my beloved brothers Amru, Ayaz, and Saif this month. Ayaz and Saif got two remote control cars, and at the end of the day, it was their big brothers who played those cars, while the little two switched to more conservative toys like Hot Wheel and Ben10 action figures, Hybrid and XLR8. =.=

Hybrid. Saif's best friend for few days.. haha

1 comment:

  1. waaah.
    menarik ni.sangat!
    kami tak sampai geometric probability. hanya binomial, poisson dn normal. juga approximation nk tukar discrete kpd normal yg sifatnya continuous.

    waaaah. best2 :)


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